Debates

Barring a terrorist attack or a massive meteor strike, Kerry has just three chances to win this election - the debates. And this is a problem for him. Kerry's supporters don't like him so much as hate Bush, while Bush has always come across as the more personable of the two. Thanks to continual denigration by opponents, Bush repeatedly wows the public by passing the drool test. Kerry is hoping that Bush says something incredibly stupid, or says "fuck", or just plain looses it. Problem is, given preparation, Bush can give a polished performance. For example, at the Republican convention, Bush wasn't perfect but he was way better than good enough. Expect the same to come. Which means it's up to Kerry to get more people to like him, and the problem is how to do that. His supporters are split on the issues, so if he stands on policy, he pisses off his base. He can't be the angry challenger because he'll sound like a country-club billionaire chewing out the minimum wage help because his Perrier is the wrong temperature. He can't get a charisma transplant, unless he goes the uncertain pharmacology route. So he's back to hoping that Bush screws up. Possible but unlikely. In sum, things don't look good for the Democratic challenger.