Barone

The Changing Republican Race
"The possible entry of Fred Thompson into the Republican presidential race seems to have changed the standings. The USA Today/Gallup poll taken March 23-25 shows Rudy Giuliani with 31 percent of the vote, down from 44 percent March 2-4, and Thompson, a new name on the list, at 12 percent. Similar results come from the Rasmussen poll announced today. Giuliani still leads, with 26 percent, but that's down from 35 percent in the poll released March 27. Thompson, again a new entry, is at 14 percent. In both polls, John McCain's standing is essentially unchanged and so is Newt Gingrich's. Mitt Romney—the fundraising champ—is in single digits (only 3 percent in Gallup, 8 percent in Rasmussen). One more poll result: Thompson has replaced Giuliani in first place in the 10th week of the Pajamas Media online straw poll. Giuliani had run first on the Republican side in the first nine weeks. But apply several grains of salt. This straw poll doesn't pretend to be a random-sample poll, and look at the numbers: Thompson 46, Ron Paul 27, Giuliani 9. And Intrade numbers now put Giuliani's chances at 34 percent, Thompson's at 22, and McCain's at 20. At one point, McCain was 45 points ahead of Giuliani on Intrade; Giuliani's surge in February and March changed that. Now Thompson's possible entry has changed the odds."