Monday, November 01, 2004

No Clear Direction In Most State Polls

It is the day before the election and there are very few indicators of which way the most critical battleground states will go. Florida and Ohio are tied. The polls in Florida are contradictory. Except for the Gallup poll (the most reputable one, by the way), Ohio is trending toward Bush. By the same token, Gallup has Bush up by 4 in Pennsylvania when most polls there have Kerry with a slight lead. The results out of Wisconsin are similarly mind-numbingly contradictory. A few days ago I would have put Iowa down in the Bush column, but Zogby has Kerry up by 6 there. Minnesota seems to be trending towards Kerry. Michigan seems pretty solid for Kerry. Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado will all go for Bush I think. New Hampshire is close but Kerry is winning or tied in all the polls from there. Maine, New Jersey, and Oregon will go for Kerry. West Viginia, Arkansas, and Hawaii will go for Bush. What a mess. I don't see any way around it all coming down to Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. I know it is boring, and I know we have all been hearing the same thing for weeks but if either candidate takes two of those three he will be hard to beat.

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